Improving an Expert-Supported Dynamic Programming Algorithm and Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Long-Term Load Forecasting

Nurettin Cetinkaya

Abstract

Load forecasting is very important to manage the electrical power systems. Load forecasting can be analyzed in three different ways as short-term, medium-term and long-term. Long-term load forecasting (LTLF) is in need to plan and carry on future energy demand and investment such as size of energy plant. LTLF is affected by energy consumption, national incoming per year, rates of civilization, increasing population rates and moreover economical parameters. Some of the forecasting models use mathematical formulas and statistical models such as correlation and regression analysis. In this study, a new effective expert-supported dynamic programming algorithm (ESDP) has been improved. Additionally, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and mathematical modeling (MM) are used to forecast long term energy demand. ANFIS is one of the famous artificial intelligence and has widely used to solve forecasting problems in literature. In addition to numerical inputs, ANFIS has linguistics inputs. The results obtained from ESDP, ANFIS and MM are compared to show availability. In order to show error levels mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and (MAE) are used. The obtained results show that the proposed algorithms are available.

Keywords

ANFIS; Dynamic programming; Electrical load forecasting; ENPEP; MAED

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Published: 2017-12-12 13:20:45
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